Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
